What’s Going to Happen?

I had blogged long ago, I thought Putin would wait until the 2020 election to disseminate information the Russians had stolen from the RNC (when they had also successfully stolen DNC data in 2016) if it appeared that Trump would lose. Well, it appears Trump will lose, but there is no upside to releasing that information. No peepee tapes either. It remains ideal to let Donny run amok across the country, in government or out of government.

I think it is important to point out, 19% of the entire US population actively supported (voted for) Trump in 2016. We can assume the Trump train has lost some of those people, but also encouraged some that did not vote in 2016, to vote this time, through their messaging of fear. Therefore, for sake of argument, let’s assume this number is close to the same. 20%. Not half of the country. Half of the country is not crazy, neither is this entire 20%. Okay? I would suggest that 20% is not equally distributed, but instead, more concentrated and facing a larger number than Clinton had won. He will lose the popular vote and the electoral college.

Trump’s only option was to create the boogieman of tampered/illegal mail in ballots, so those could be discarded through court action, the problem with this gambit is, not everyone that would prefer to vote for Trump is crazy, so with the Covid19 infection rate closing in on 100,000 per day, this ploy will result in some people deciding to not vote on election day. A quick look at the weather map indicates virtually smooth sailing, so weather will probably not influence the vote.

I do not believe we will see widespread violence at polling sites. Probably small, isolated incidents of no great effect. The great majority of people just want to cast their vote, and/or watch the process from home, much like a sporting event.

What we do know is that the Trump Campaign, the RNC, and state run GOP groups across the country are losing case after case to suppress voting and discard votes already cast. We also know, immediately after the polls close, these parties will recommit to court actions to discount legitimate votes. That’s the only way Trump can stay in power. Trump’s hardcore base has now been trained to expect this. They know that the GOP plans on stealing this election, but have swallowed whole the tortured reasoning and rationalization as to how this is acceptable for this election or our democracy.

Therefore, if we are to be concerned about violence, that will manifest itself in the days following the election, when Donny will signal whom the offending party is. The Governor of Pennsylvania, or the Governor of Michigan. The division of elections of Florida. The cities of Houston, Dallas, Austin, or San Antonio. Particular lawyers in particular courthouses. “The media.” Even if he clearly has overwhelmingly lost, he will pick out enemies.

He will no doubt make generalized statements about the “rigged” election, and how unfair and fraudulent everything is, but we’re used to that aren’t we? So are his followers. It’s the particular declarations for which we need to look out. He will let his followers know which parties need to have justice visited upon them, and we shall have to wait and see if a small minority of that 20% heed the call. He’ll do the usual “people are saying…,” and “if you take a look at…”

If he does not overwhelmingly lose, we can expect protracted unrest. Any case he is allowed to win by his own selected jurors, we can expect the left to take to the streets in DC. The re-erection of a third wall around the White House, does not inspire confidence that Donny will not manufacture as much dissent as possible. Not only does he not care about the well being of any of his followers, or any US citizen, he clearly delights in anarchy. I am not certain the new fence around the WH is entirely Donny’s idea, but may be SS and staff deciding, for sure, Donny is going to make this worse, let’s put up that fence so we all don’t die.

So I am presenting 2 “ifs”:

If he is allowed to steal a state, or,

If his followers decide to heed the call.

No matter what form the election takes, it is clear Donny has already begun sabotaging the federal government for the incoming administration. If and when he loses, he will insist on no federal plan for the virus and ramp up a “going out of business sale” of corruption and influence peddling we never imagined.

He won’t go out pretty. We know that. He is going to leave as much anguish and anarchy in his wake as possible. Just like all of his business disasters.

He will already be planning his next ego-feeding business of Trump TV or some weird WWE/Trump co-platform. Selling their rage, destruction, and vanquishing of imaginary adversaries which is packaged for the created disaffected mob; the mindless, slack-jawed followers, keen on “owning the libs” by punching themselves in the face. He will immediately file to run for 2024 and continue his cult pep rallies that never ended. Donny will create enmity with every town he stiffs, thinking he is still protected by the weight of the Federal government. Eventually Donny will find the end of the road in the open doors of courthouses, awaiting his final show.

That city whose justice he has evaded for decades, will finally have their day.


What do you think is going to happen?

The Theory

Iraqi Parliament was already prepared to take a vote to demand US forces leave their nation. With the drone strike that killed head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force, Qasem Soleimani, and head of the Iran-backed Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, this is probably a foregone conclusion considering what an escalation will mean throughout the Middle East and particularly in Iraq.

If the US remains, there will not only be escalating proxy battles with Iranian-backed militias, there will be internal strife as Iraqi national forces are forced to take sides and possibly inter-militia fights as some forces would prefer Iran to leave and some not. Total mess.

Some have reported that it was Iraq itself which provided the intel to the US, as to the impending arrival of Soleimani, this isn’t necessary to my theory, but it is possible and also it fits nicely from Iraq’s position as killing two birds with one stone. I had also heard it was possible Soleimani was not arriving to mastermind some new plot in Iraq, but instead he wished to attend to the mourning of the 25 militia killed in the previous bombing. Maybe. Who knows.

Donald Trump is easily the dumbest piece of shit to ever occupy the White House, but he can comprehend simple concepts. So a simple concept arrived in this form:

Trump is informed a high value Iranian target will be arriving in Iraq within very easy reach within days. Trump says, “Let’s kill him.” Military responds with the need to run this by Iraq first since it will be a dronestrike by the Baghdad airport. Military returns to Trump with, “Iraq already wants us to leave, if we do this thing, Parliament will vote upon this shortly and say as much.”

Trump says, “That sounds great.”

Iraq agrees.

Therefore, there will be an escalation of proxy battles for some amount of time within Iraq, until the withdrawal from Iraq is announced in accordance with Iraqi Parliament’s wishes. Trump gets to act like he’s a tough guy that had a plan all along, and he is also following his promise as candidate Trump to leave all wars in the Middle East.

At some point this year, Baghdad will be the new evacuation of Saigon, and it will look about the same for US forces. Of course, this does not signal the end of escalation with Iran, the US just withdraws from the Iraqi theater. So perhaps, Trump will have that which he cannot foresee yet. No proxy battle in Iraq? Where would you like to continue? In the Persian Gulf, Israel, Saudi Arabia? The Middle East is fucked for the foreseeable future.

Not to mention whatever this ridiculous “maximum pressure” plan may have hoped for, like pressuring capitulation to demands that aren’t even fully understood, or expecting a political upheaval and overthrow in Iran; those dreams are long gone.

Iran will be in the position it always longed for, well positioned control across the region. Russia is very happy indeed. Iraq is left to try to figure out how to undo Iranian influence in their country.

Good luck with that.