What’s Going to Happen?

I had blogged long ago, I thought Putin would wait until the 2020 election to disseminate information the Russians had stolen from the RNC (when they had also successfully stolen DNC data in 2016) if it appeared that Trump would lose. Well, it appears Trump will lose, but there is no upside to releasing that information. No peepee tapes either. It remains ideal to let Donny run amok across the country, in government or out of government.

I think it is important to point out, 19% of the entire US population actively supported (voted for) Trump in 2016. We can assume the Trump train has lost some of those people, but also encouraged some that did not vote in 2016, to vote this time, through their messaging of fear. Therefore, for sake of argument, let’s assume this number is close to the same. 20%. Not half of the country. Half of the country is not crazy, neither is this entire 20%. Okay? I would suggest that 20% is not equally distributed, but instead, more concentrated and facing a larger number than Clinton had won. He will lose the popular vote and the electoral college.

Trump’s only option was to create the boogieman of tampered/illegal mail in ballots, so those could be discarded through court action, the problem with this gambit is, not everyone that would prefer to vote for Trump is crazy, so with the Covid19 infection rate closing in on 100,000 per day, this ploy will result in some people deciding to not vote on election day. A quick look at the weather map indicates virtually smooth sailing, so weather will probably not influence the vote.

I do not believe we will see widespread violence at polling sites. Probably small, isolated incidents of no great effect. The great majority of people just want to cast their vote, and/or watch the process from home, much like a sporting event.

What we do know is that the Trump Campaign, the RNC, and state run GOP groups across the country are losing case after case to suppress voting and discard votes already cast. We also know, immediately after the polls close, these parties will recommit to court actions to discount legitimate votes. That’s the only way Trump can stay in power. Trump’s hardcore base has now been trained to expect this. They know that the GOP plans on stealing this election, but have swallowed whole the tortured reasoning and rationalization as to how this is acceptable for this election or our democracy.

Therefore, if we are to be concerned about violence, that will manifest itself in the days following the election, when Donny will signal whom the offending party is. The Governor of Pennsylvania, or the Governor of Michigan. The division of elections of Florida. The cities of Houston, Dallas, Austin, or San Antonio. Particular lawyers in particular courthouses. “The media.” Even if he clearly has overwhelmingly lost, he will pick out enemies.

He will no doubt make generalized statements about the “rigged” election, and how unfair and fraudulent everything is, but we’re used to that aren’t we? So are his followers. It’s the particular declarations for which we need to look out. He will let his followers know which parties need to have justice visited upon them, and we shall have to wait and see if a small minority of that 20% heed the call. He’ll do the usual “people are saying…,” and “if you take a look at…”

If he does not overwhelmingly lose, we can expect protracted unrest. Any case he is allowed to win by his own selected jurors, we can expect the left to take to the streets in DC. The re-erection of a third wall around the White House, does not inspire confidence that Donny will not manufacture as much dissent as possible. Not only does he not care about the well being of any of his followers, or any US citizen, he clearly delights in anarchy. I am not certain the new fence around the WH is entirely Donny’s idea, but may be SS and staff deciding, for sure, Donny is going to make this worse, let’s put up that fence so we all don’t die.

So I am presenting 2 “ifs”:

If he is allowed to steal a state, or,

If his followers decide to heed the call.

No matter what form the election takes, it is clear Donny has already begun sabotaging the federal government for the incoming administration. If and when he loses, he will insist on no federal plan for the virus and ramp up a “going out of business sale” of corruption and influence peddling we never imagined.

He won’t go out pretty. We know that. He is going to leave as much anguish and anarchy in his wake as possible. Just like all of his business disasters.

He will already be planning his next ego-feeding business of Trump TV or some weird WWE/Trump co-platform. Selling their rage, destruction, and vanquishing of imaginary adversaries which is packaged for the created disaffected mob; the mindless, slack-jawed followers, keen on “owning the libs” by punching themselves in the face. He will immediately file to run for 2024 and continue his cult pep rallies that never ended. Donny will create enmity with every town he stiffs, thinking he is still protected by the weight of the Federal government. Eventually Donny will find the end of the road in the open doors of courthouses, awaiting his final show.

That city whose justice he has evaded for decades, will finally have their day.

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What do you think is going to happen?

Portland, Legal Actions So Far

Two items of note.

1.Two resolutions authored by Portland Commissioner Eudaly, which were adopted unanimously by council. The first, to cease all cooperation between the Portland Police Bureau and what is literally described as “The Federal Occupiers.” The second, to affirm the rights of members of the press and legal observers to cover the protests without fear of being molested by Federal forces. This second resolution fits nicely into-

2. The first ACLU suit supported by the State of Oregon, to grant 14 day restraining order, barring federal officers from using force, threats and dispersal orders against journalists or legal observers documenting the daily demonstrations in downtown Portland.

I’m not sure what the upside is to Portland’s order to cease cooperation with the Federal forces, which Mayor Ted Wheeler, who oversees the police, said he is asking Police Chief Lovell to translate into immediate directions for the bureau.  I’m sure most general day-to-day interactions with the components of DHS can be done over the phone with their primary federal offices. However, with the federal forces interacting with the citizens of Portland in various ways, I’m not sure making communication between the city and “The Occupiers” more difficult is a great idea. Especially if my belief that identifying the personnel in the federal forces is key to their ultimate undoing.

What if Portland police and federal forces are operating within the same area? They will be, because the courthouse is PACT’s only real area of jurisdiction and Portland’s Police headquarters is right across the street. Aside from the obvious need for immediate “call-to-action” if people get hurt or shit catches on fire or any number of catastrophes transpire, there is, as mentioned previously, situations in which federal forces are supposed to immediately contact local authorities involving apprehensions and arrests outside of their federal jurisdiction…and we want that to happen.

Section 133.245 of Oregon Code, outlines how the proper federal forces are to handle arrests in the course of their federal duties. Federal forces can apprehend and arrest someone for probable cause but they must:

(2) The federal officer shall inform the person to be arrested of the federal officer’s authority and reason for the arrest.” Or. Rev. Stat. § 133.245

and:

(a) A federal officer making an arrest under this section without unnecessary delay shall take the arrested person before a magistrate or deliver the arrested person to a peace officer. (b) The federal officer retains authority over the arrested person only until the person appears before a magistrate or until the law enforcement agency having general jurisdiction over the area in which the arrest took place assumes responsibility for the person. Or. Rev. Stat. § 133.245

They must identify themselves, their authority, and declare the reason for an arrest, and they must immediately turn over those arrests to the proper State authorities. We want this to happen. We want to know who the arresting officer is, on what authority, and we want paperwork they will sign off and hand over to the proper authorities. We want an immediate account by the arrested as to what happened regarding these procedures.

If the city removes their cooperation with the Federal Govt, the DHS will likely use that as flimsy justification for not following statutes to the letter; delaying action long enough to get their stories straight as to who did what to whom.

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There is one court exchange in the ACLU suit I’d like to highlight concerning the need for federal forces in Portland having to be properly trained in order to act as a officer of the law within their state.

By-and-large, U.S. District Judge Michael H. Simon, wasn’t having any of the Fed’s bullshit when it came to justifying roughing up the press or legal observers. The judge pretty much dismantled the Fed’s arguments himself and sent them packing. This-

Simon also asked Warden what type of crowd-control training the federal officers have.

Warden said he wasn’t aware of all the federal units’ specialized training but said the U.S. Customs and Border Patrol’s tactical unit, or BORTAC, has training in dealing with large gatherings. The unit is typically assigned to the southern border ports of entry.

The DOJ attorney wasn’t aware of what training the DHS’s PACT goons had? Wasn’t he there to represent them, and knowledge of this information being a prerequisite to the very reason for the suit? Was he aware of what “all of the federal units” were that he was representing? Is he not aware if there are any BORTAC units represented within the current federal forces present in Portland? Or does he know exactly what PACT is comprised of in Portland and chose not to clarify?

Trump’s Attacks on Immigration via the Executive Order

Trump’s recent Executive Order seeking to limit rights of declaration of asylum, encouraged me to re-examine all of the Executive Orders issued by the Trump administration regarding immigration and refugee resettlement.  I have avoided the topic of DACA, as that is a novel unto itself.

November 9, 2018. Presidential Proclamation Addressing Mass Migration Through the Southern Border of the United States

In short, this document says, “If you enter the country illegally, you may not seek or be granted asylum.”

It’s idiotic to say the least.  It will garner vigorous legal challenges from many sources as it is in discord with our own and international laws.  In honesty, I tell you, what Trump is attempting to do is force-funnel all asylum seekers into now congested, and over-taxed ports of entry in order to create a crowded, hostile atmosphere from which he may direct the National Guard,or Border Patrol, or any damn official with a gun, to open fire on all of the angry, drug-dealing, rapist, gang member, goddamn Mexicans.  So, you can join the mob at entry points, or be an illegal that may never-ever seek asylum.

It’s a manufactured crisis. (explained here)

That’s the whole plan here folks.  Trump’s people know this Executive Order won’t last.  Manufactured violence is the goddamn money shot Trump longs for.  The order doesn’t need to last forever, only long enough for someone to get shot.

“See??!!! I told you they were all animals.”

Previous orders:

January 25, 2017. Executive Order “Enhancing Public Safety in the Interior of the United States”

An Executive order to punish “Sanctuary Cities” by withholding Federal funding.

Overturned multiple times in multiple jurisdictions for very good reason as plainly noted below.  Most recently, August 2, 2018 US Circuit Court of Appeals, Ninth Circuit.

“Under the principle of Separation of Powers and in consideration of the Spending Clause, which vests exclusive power to Congress to impose conditions on federal grants, the Executive Branch may not refuse to disperse the federal grants in question without congressional authorization. Because Congress has not acted, we affirm the district court’s grant of summary judgment to the City and County of San Francisco and the County of Santa Clara.”

January 25, 2018. Executive Order: Border Security and Immigration Enforcement Improvements

An Executive Order to build the wall along the southern border with Mexico.

Meaningless.  This is merely an empty proclamation as it has no Congressional funding.  Without funding, it is only words on paper.

January 27, 2018. Executive Order Protecting the Nation from Foreign Terrorist Entry into the United States

The “Muslim” travel ban #1.  Poorly written, poorly executed, and legally hampered by the idiot words that came out of Donny’s mouth repeatedly.

Overturned in multiply jurisdictions.

March 6, 2017 Memorandum for the Secretary of State, the Attorney General, the Secretary of Homeland Security

A rewrite and second attempt at the “Muslim” travel ban.  90 day limit.  This also had the effect of stalling any refugee resettlement.

Partially upheld by the Supreme Court.  Allowed to go into it’s partial effect on June 2017 for 6 blacklisted nations.  Included a 120 day freeze of refugee resettlement.  Expired.

 

September 29, 2017 Presidential Memorandum for the Secretary of State

A memorandum outlining the amount of refugees to be admitted into the US for 2018.  Total number= 45,000.  Down from 110,000 as set the previous year by the Obama administration.  Particularly insidious considering the worldwide refugee crisis.  There is every reason to believe this administration would like to get that number down as low as possible (with zero being the ideal number), as the vast majority of these people are non-white.

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19,000
East Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,000
Europe and Central Asia . . . . . . . . 2,000
Latin America/Caribbean . . . . . . . . 1,500
Near East/South Asia . . . . . . . . . 17,500

How many refugees did the US actually end up admitting under the Trump administration for fiscal year 2018? (Oct 1-Sept 30 is a fiscal year)  22,491 out of the 45,000 allotted.   Fiscal year 2017, under mostly the Trump administration’s guidance- 53,701 out of the 110,000 allotted by the Obama administration.

October 24, 2017.  Presidential Executive Order on Resuming the United States Refugee Admissions Program with Enhanced Vetting Capabilities

A resumption of application for refugee resettlement but with “Enhanced Vetting.”  A statement Trump absolutely fucking loved to say, but it was never clear what the fuck it meant, and this document did little to clarify that except it would take at least 90 extra days.  It is applied to 11 haphazardly selected and unnamed nations.  It was clearly a way to slow down refugees from entering the US.

“The lack of these arrivals, at a time they were legally ordered to resume, is just one window into how the Trump administration has slowed the resettlement process through administrative obstacles, lack of proper staffing and “enhanced security measures,” say advocates and former staffers. Many of them are starting to wonder if the dysfunction is intentional. “The program isn’t being managed—or, it’s being managed to fail,” said Bob Carey, former director of the Office of Refugee Resettlement during the Obama Administration. “What couldn’t be achieved through executive orders is being achieved through administrative roadblocks or lack of will.”

“These workers’ impression of engineered chaos comes as the State Department is already using low numbers of refugees to justify the closure of dozens of offices of resettlement agencies, which are private nonprofits that contract with the federal government. The resettlement agencies and employees still standing are left with the question of how to do their jobs under an administration that at best is making resettlement a very low priority.”

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/02/26/refugee-resettlement-confusion-executive-orders-217038

April 4, 2018.  Presidential Memorandum for the Secretary of Defense, the Attorney General, and the Secretary of Homeland Security

The first installment of: Donny sees a scary video on Fox News about a migrant “caravan” rapidly approaching the US border.  These people will assuredly shoot us all full of drugs and butt-rape practically everyone.  In response to this very, very real boogeyman, Trump requests the States to call up their National Guard.

At the time, many State’s Governors refused to send National Guard. Later, many removed their National Guard as they wanted nothing to do with the Trump Administration’s subsequent “Family Separation” policies.  The best estimate is 450 people actually approached the border from this caravan, of those- 110 entered illegally, but it is uncertain how many of those 110 were forcibly turned away from ports of entry as some clearly were.  Of the 110 the estimate is 11 were actually charged with illegal entry into the US.

April 6, 2018. Presidential Memorandum for the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense, the Attorney General, the Secretary of Health and Human Services, and the Secretary of Homeland Security

Trump declares, with the stroke of a pen, “Catch and Release is OVER.”  Directs US agencies to go about constructing detention facilities.  All of these types of orders under the pretense of the threat of drugs, smuggling, and gang members just pouring in through the border.  This order ultimately lead to the realization that the Trump Administration’s “zero tolerance policy” was in fact, a “family separation policy.”

Overturned.

Initial reporting– “The Trump administration was left with few options after a series of court orders. A federal judge last month ordered the reunification of children under five by 10 July. That deadline was not met, officials acknowledged, while noting plans were under way on Tuesday to reunite up to 54 migrant children under five with their parents.”

June 20, 2018. Affording Congress an Opportunity to Address Family Separation

The Trump Administration dumps their “zero-tolerance” fuck-up on Congress…and blames Congress for it.

“This Administration will initiate proceedings to enforce this and other criminal provisions of the INA until and unless Congress directs otherwise. It is also the policy of this Administration to maintain family unity, including by detaining alien families together where appropriate and consistent with law and available resources. It is unfortunate that Congress’s failure to act and court orders have put the Administration in the position of separating alien families to effectively enforce the law.”

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The Administration’s proposal for refugee resettlement for 2019?

Proposed FY 2019 Regional Ceilings

Africa 11,000

East Asia 4,000

Europe and Central Asia 3,000

Latin America and the Caribbean 3,000

Near East and South Asia 9,000

TOTAL PROPOSED CEILING 30,000

For real.  30,000.

https://www.state.gov/j/prm/releases/docsforcongress/286157.htm

 

 

 

 

So where are we now?

When I started this blog my presumption was that ultimately many people around Donald Trump would be charged with various crimes and that Trump would still be standing after the fact.  He would remain… tarnished, damaged and left to Congress to deal with or not; leading to a constitutional crisis.  I presumed this wouldn’t take place until late spring or early summer.

We’re way ahead of schedule and that makes me nervous.

In hindsight, it is possible that Trump’s latest insanity was in fact prodded by the knowledge that the hammer was coming down on Flynn.  What is about to happen to Flynn could portend great difficulties to Trump himself.  We don’t know yet.  It is possible that we will be able to glean where this investigation is going, so far as Trump himself is concerned, by what is type of language is presented in court in half an hour.  We may not know.

If it is presented as a plea deal, then we have to wonder what the other side of the bargain is.  This most obviously, as far as Trump is concerned, points to obstruction of justice.  That looks like a straight forward path, doesn’t it?  If that’s the case, I’m unhappy with the timeline, but we knew all along Mueller isn’t going to play politics and if he had, it would muddy his honest work.

It could be that this will follow my original analysis and lead to further charges filed against “all the kings men” and not Trump himself.  It could also be that a forthcoming plea deal is self contained and involves only Flynn himself, but that would seem to be less likely.

We may not discover anything new after this court appearance.  Let’s see.  I know it’s awful for me to contemplate, but I hope this gets strung along closer to midterms, or we may find ourselves in a comparably worse place for the long-term prospects of a liberal, progressive, forward reaching Democracy.

If all things remain as they are, this would be the beginning of Trump totally losing his mind and undertaking some truly concerning, troubling, and dangerous activities in full blown insanity that could damage our country.

I’m nervous.