April 4, 2018

Trump has a Fox News induced, mental breakdown about a caravan of illegals coming to rape everyone in America and shoot us all up with either guns or syringes full of dope.  Trump declares, “Until we can have a wall and proper security, we’re going to be guarding our border with the military.”

He won’t be sending the military.  He won’t even be sending the National Guard unless he wants to either declare war on Mexico or declare a state of emergency.  Any other such executive order will be meaningless unless it’s funded and that takes work from the legislative branch.  No, the DOD doesn’t have a slush fund or petty cash drawer to open to pay for the billions this operation would take.  They can’t steal it from other earmarks.

It cost Obama 110 million just to send 1200 troops for one year (not overall package cost which was much higher).   That had to be funded by Congress.

“The president, who alone cannot formally authorize deployment of the forces, is expected to request $500 million in supplemental funds from Congress to make a state governor’s decision to deploy troops financially possible.”

There’s no doubt, when Trump signs his executive order, it’s going to be vague.  Will it say: NG from which states?  How many?  How long?  Exactly what is their operation?  What is the estimated cost?  It probably won’t have any of this information in it.  Just like many other of Trump’s spur-of-the-moment ideas, he’ll sign a paper, throw his hands up in the air, and expect someone else to figure out what the hell his intentions are.

  1. Military trans ban.
  2. Muslim ban
  3. Iran Nuclear Agreement.
  4. NAFTA
  5. DACA
  6. Steel, Aluminum tariffs
  7. China trade war

Someone else can figure it out.  Generally speaking, no one is figuring out anything.

Sending the National Guard to the Southern Border requires a well reasoned mission with a defined scope and time limit, co-ordination and authorization by each affected State’s Governor, and funding.  Are any of these apparent in, “We’ll send the military until the wall is built”?

Let’s wait to see what form this executive order takes.  I presume that at most, we might see a handful of guys go down there and offer technical expertise for a couple months.  There aren’t going to be Abrams tanks or totally invisible F-35 fighter jets patrolling the border like Trump envisions, that’s for damn sure.

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UPDATE

The Executive order has been released….and it’s a steaming pile of shit.

It opens with a preamble vilifying immigrants with all the usual boogeyman scare tactics.  Our opioid problem is coming from the southern border, MS13 gang members are just pouring in, and we’re about to be overwhelmed.

There is zero framework for the scope of whatever the hell Trump is asking for.  Zero.  As a matter of fact he’s directing the DOD and DHS to take 30 days to generate a report to tell him what the hell he’s talking about.

“Within 30 days of the date of this memorandum, the Secretary of Defense and the Secretary of Homeland Security, in coordination with the Attorney General, shall submit to the President a report detailing their findings and an action plan, including specific recommendations as to any other executive authorities that should be invoked to defend the border and security of the United States.”

He is allowing the DOD to ask the States if the DOD can go ahead and borrow their national Guard for whatever the hell it is they might feel they need to do.

“The President may assign a mission to the Secretary of Defense to support the operations of the Department of Homeland Security in securing our southern border, including by requesting use of the National Guard, and to take other necessary steps to stop the flow of deadly drugs and other contraband, gang members and other criminals, and illegal aliens into the country.”

All of this is subject to there actually being funds available to do whatever it is that the DOD informs Trump about whatever the hell it is he wants to do.

“This memorandum shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.”

Absolute, utter fucking bullshit.  This is ridiculous.  

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Of greater concern- what is going to happen in Syria.  What?

Trump wants to call home the remaining US forces in Syria.  Folks, there’s only 2000 dudes there now.  We’re pretty much out of Syria.  These remaining forces although militarily insignificant, are symbolically huge.  It says, “We still have interests.”

Forget about the concept of destroying what’s left of Isis.  We have already ceded Syria to Russian and Iranian influences.   If we remove the last troops, we’re giving up the region to the borders of an already wobbly Iraq.

Map_of_middle_east[1].gif

The Kurds in the north of Syria (arguably the last of the “good guys”) will be between the rock of Syrian forces looking to retake real estate exclusively, and the hammer of our fucking NATO ally, Turkey, whom is looking to erase them from the earth.  Now we could argue about who is the more aggressive party in the whole Turkey-Kurd issue, but in truth, Turkey has been working on a cultural genocide if not actual genocide of the Kurds since the 80s.  Who do we want to blame?  Can’t blame the Kurds for having already been in Turkey when it formed with so much promise…and why the hell has it gone so wrong?

Bottom line,  I believe the Trump administration is pushing Saudi Arabia to drop the gloves with proxy wars, and have at Iran themselves.  I also believe the Russians would love nothing more than outright hostilities in the Middle East so that oil prices can be driven up and so that they have a theater in which to show off and sell more of their military hardware.  I also believe Israel can’t be viewing all of this as totally kosher.

I don’t think this is a coordinated Trump-Putin strategy, I simply believe this is where their interests intersect.

 

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