January 22, 2018

I can’t help but have a bad feeling about the current budget/CHIP/DACA-promise agreement.  I think it’s great that CHIP will be set-up for 6 years.  I also think it’s great that the budget isn’t going to be rubber-stamped and will take actual bi-partisan negotiations.

What I’m really concerned about is how we came to this place on immigration and where we are going.  All of the possible outlier deals on “chain migration” and the lottery and quotas and preferred race/nationality- that stuff we can put aside as not fully formed and near impossible to get majority consensus on with all of these disparate groups within each party.  We don’t know what any of these deals separately or as a whole look like in reality, if and when they reach the floor for votes in either house.

Let’s put the odds of any bill passing in both house before March 5th at somewhere south of 50%.  For now, that is reasonable.  In the case that DACA is tied to an all-encompassing legislation of immigration reform, which is what the majority of GOP will want in both houses, the chances of the Dreamers remaining unscathed in the US are something less than 50%.

The odds of the original Trump-version border wall and all of it’s qualifiers, passing in both house before March 5th, is well less than 50%.  If the Dreamers were attached to a hybrid wall-centric bill with few new qualifiers, the odds of that passing are reasonably above 50%.

Should the Dreamers be adversely affected and/or should the electorate be handed the supposed bill for the wall, the Democrats will, as a matter of optics, be very well off from this whole sordid affair.  The chances of these scenarios working out, from a midterm election viewpoint, in favor of the Democrats is some number around 75% for now.  The Democrats could literally worry about nothing but haggling over the budget and allow the GOP to mess around with all of their new toys and fuck it all up.

There are certainly good Democrats and Republicans that will care for the Dreamers and fight as hard as they can, but the odds are still something slightly less than 50% because of time constraints.  I’m feeling so negative about this now, because it seems to me this may be the Schumer/Pelosi plan.  I know they wanted unfettered access to real negotiations for the budget, but the DACA situation?  Was all of this a calculated risk with the odds being in favor of reflecting well on Democrats for the midterms?

Tell me I’m being too negative.

2 thoughts on “January 22, 2018

  1. They better explain line by line to the public what their new wall-DACA bill or endeavor or merger or watchamacaliit so as to better understand it. My feel of this depends on the semantics. If i get confused by this, I feel your pain as well. Whatever confusion comes out from this, the perception of the common man as to which political party comes out right or wrong will determine the political outcome. Its easy to windowdress something just to make it look good but as they say, you put lipstick on a pig, it still looks like a pig.

    Liked by 1 person

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