There are 34 Senate seats up for election in 2018. Of those, 24 are Democrat and 2 are Independent. That leaves 8 Republican seats. This situation reverses itself for the 2020 election when there are 11 Dem seats and 21 Rep seats up. If you take a look at where the Dem. seats are up for election in 2018, you can feel pretty confident about most of them. But hey, if you look at the Republican seats, you could probably say the same thing.
Or could you?
I was just messing around with some numbers trying to get a feel for any Republican state seat’s potential for movement. I want to say, right up front these numbers aren’t 100% legit, because I don’t have everything taken into account, so this would just imply possible mobility.
Taken in to account, state by state, Clinton’s under-performance to Obama +openess to voting third parties+the Trump effect on Virgina’s Governor race (+/-), I came up with the widest possible margin of a state swinging on average at 11.75%. If we work that back in to Clinton’s meh numbers, then some of the open Republican seats seem possible to flip, not Wyoming, Tenn, or Nebraska.
Two of the possibilities from my numbers, are two states you already know- Arizona with Jeff Flake and Nevada with Dean Heller. Now, the other two are going to be a bit more of a surprise. Texas with Ted Cruz and Utah with Orrin Hatch. I know my numbers must be lying to me when I see Ted Cruz’s name, but what about Orrin Hatch?
***Pffff. Just turned on Don Lemon on CNN 10 minutes after I posted this. Democratic Rep. O’Rourke from Texas says Democratic party has the statistics, cash, and plan to back a serious run at Ted Cruz for 2018. Maybe my numbers aren’t total garbage.***
When it comes to politics, Utah is on another planet. They couldn’t be a greater polar opposite of states like Maine or Conn. politically speaking, but also couldn’t be any more similar in that they just don’t give a rat’s ass what anyone else thinks. If you’ll remember the Presidential election, not only did Trump terribly under-perform on Romney’s numbers, -29 points! Yikes. The state was more than happy to voice their disapproval of the whole affair by tossing 22 points to independent Evan McMullin. That’s a whole mess of points laying on the field for the right candidate. Add to this the great possibility that Hatch will not seek re-election and you got yourself a ballgame! That being said, if Romney decides he wants to run for that seat, it’s over.
I did come up with some other numbers I feel very comfortable reporting about the Trump effect: voter turnout. Averaging our two most recent “big” elections in Virginia Governor and Alabama Senator to their previous elections, Republican turn-out by vote is down 15% and Democrat is up 14%. It’s true these average numbers are both one-offs, because Virginia had so much interest overall and the Alabama Republican was so repulsive. But in either case, the Trump effect was that Democrats well outpaced Republican by large margins. If those numbers carry in any semblance to upcoming midterms, the Republicans would lose damn near every seat. That’s not going to happen, but it represents big issues for Republicans.
I found one other interesting number today: 15.
“Democrats have a 15-point advantage over Republicans on a generic 2018 ballot, according to a new poll from the Monmouth University Polling Institute.
In the survey released Wednesday, 51 percent of registered voters said they would vote for or lean toward a Democratic candidate if the midterm elections were held today. Only 36 percent of voters said they would vote or lean Republican.”
I bring all this up, because I’m trying to rationalize what the hell is the Republican position on pushing through horrible legislation in Tax Reform, and assuming they’re going to get massive push-back come midterms.
I believe they think or know these things to be true:
- Romney is going to run for the Utah seat.
- All other Republican States will likely hold true except.-
- Dean Heller is an acceptable sacrifice.
- Any other seat lost in the Senate will surely be made up by picking off any one of the many Democratic seats open.
This is beyond foolish because of something we all know anecdotally to be true at the very least, and in hard numbers by every poll taken (this from same poll above):
“Respondents are also overwhelmingly disappointed by the current job that Congress is doing, with only 16 percent saying they approve and 65 percent saying they disapprove.”
Rod Rosenstein did speak before the House Intelligence Committee today. It was un-be-leiv-able. I’d talk about it at length, but I’ve already gone and typed at length, so later.
It suffices to say that Republicans up and down the board, had their anti-Trump-bias narrative volleyed back to them time and time again. Rosenstein couldn’t see it, wouldn’t see it, and very calmly and patiently explained why such theories were incorrect, in all due respect. The Republican’s response were this kind of irritating (not a quote at all, but the over-riding theme):
“I understand you do not believe these things to be true, but I’m waving around in my hand a stack of papers with cell phone text messages on them….and there you have it. Case over. We are still going to believe such bias exists no matter the facts.”