Yes, Doug Jones shall win the senate seat for Alabama. Good news.
I’d like to say my belief is this was not a referendum on whether or not sexual misconduct is disqualifying. I believe we shall see a wider range of topics swaying this vote to the Democrat than simply that issue. That being said, in many ways this was a re-do of Trump’s election. Moore and Trump were similarly unqualified for the position, similarly creepy, and similarly burdened with multiple accusations of sexual misconduct.
I had said before,on November 17 –the day we learned about Al Franken’s misconduct, that a wave of retribution was coming:
“This groundswell is from the actions of Donald Trump. It’s been stuck in the collective conscience of American women for a year now. It was indistinct, uncertain when the ground began to shake-there’s bad men out there. It’s cause was uncertain when structures began to topple-there’s something systemically wrong. It’s clear now, life can be unfair. Things don’t happen like they ought to. Trump was never what you prayed for.
Trump was supposed to be a mad savior. Turns out he’s just mad. He started this groundswell and maybe the women aren’t ready to go after him yet, or maybe…after today, some are rethinking that position at least politically.”
I Believe, all things being equal, the ultimate payment shall not be seen until midterms. Here is what is really really really important and of consequence right now:
1.Republican postmortem of Alabama. There’s some super important data to be mined from this unexpected result for Republicans, and something that is going to have immediate consequences in the form of whether or not tax reform is passed and whether or not key issues like DACA and CHIP shall still be ignored/abused/held hostage.
It doesn’t matter to Republicans how important the sexual abuse charges are, except in the case of any congressperson that vocally supported Moore-you my friends are in trouble for sure. What does matter in exit polls and follow-up polling, is to what extent voters disapprove the current congressional shitfest, especially in the keypoints: tax reform, daca, chip. How far up in front-of-mind these topics are may decide how much Republicans are interested in further shenanigans.
Despite McConnell’s suggestions that tax reform will be wrapped up before the session expires and before the new Democrat sits in the Senate, there may very well be some current Republicans whom are about to prove otherwise. If the bill manages to get through reconciliation and taken to a vote before the holidays, I would not be surprised to see a few people suddenly vote Nay or discover some way by which to drag the whole process so that there is not a vote before the holidays. Hell, the reconciliation committee itself may very well decide to drag their feet and give ample time for enough people to change their minds and just blame it all on the Democrats. Let’s watch for signs of this over the next week.
2. Steve Bannon is done. It was already unlikely that he was going to come out of this looking good, but man…he is a toast. His dreams of building a new world order based on anarchy and cult of personality are, for all practical purposes, over. Only the most extreme, frothy mouthed candidate would want his touch of death on their campaign. Back to your rabble-rousing rag, Stevo.
3. Trump. What will he do now? How will he react? I imagine he shall lash out over twitter, per usual, at Democrats and possibly a few Senators for not giving strong support. He might even say something about Bannon. Doesn’t much matter, what does matter is to what extent he throws his considerable lack of knowledge into Tax Reform.
I’m confident he will be over the race in short order and immediately turn his disruptive influence on Tax Reform as his new distraction. Let’s see how much he helps to fuck this up. Should be amusing to say the least.
He could make some crazy-ass executive order out of the blue, or he could decide the most fun he could have right now is to argue with every female he can think of on twitter, about his own abuse allegations. I just don’t know…and what do you think he’ll do?
I am very happy with how the Democrats approached the Alabama race. Very pleased. They could have messed it up with getting on a high horse and talking down to people, they didn’t. They could have been apathetic, they weren’t. They did just the right things at just the right time. Thanks Obama, Biden, and Booker. Very pleased indeed.
Thank you Black folks and all minorities for being the adults in the room, despite the obstacles Alabama sets before you.
We should enjoy this moment for now, as a sign that it is possible to return to sanity. It is sometimes possible to correct our wrong-doings. It is reasonable to think we see a dawn approaching just beyond the morning star; a glimmer of hope in the distance which we walk towards.